Antimicrobial resistance to cause 1.91 million deaths annually by 2050—Report
Recent study on global Antimicrobial resistance projects that by 2050, antibiotic resistance is projected to directly cause 1.91 million deaths annually, with older populations of 70years and above being the most affected by this growing health crisis.
This was stated in a recent analysis published in The Lancet, titled Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990–2021: A systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050, reveals that antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is set to become a major global health crisis by mid-century.
According to the report, AMR will lead to approximately 1.91 million annual deaths globally between 2025 and 2050.The burden of AMR will disproportionately affect older populations.
The report notes, “an estimated 1·91 million (1·56–2·26) deaths attributable to AMR and 8·22 million (6·85–9·65) deaths associated with AMR could occur globally in 2050’’
“For deaths of people 70 years and older, we forecasted an increase from 2022 to 2050 in every super-region,” with a global increase of 146% during this period. This trend is notably severe in North Africa and the Middle East, where the increase is projected at 234%.
What is AMR
Antimicrobial resistance occurs when microorganisms like bacteria, viruses, fungi, and parasites evolve to become resistant to the drugs designed to kill them. This makes infections harder to treat, potentially leading to longer illnesses, higher medical costs, and increased mortality rates.
The impact of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is projected to hit hardest in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria. The report shows that these regions bear the heaviest burdens both in deaths directly caused by AMR and those associated with it.
In contrast, the number of deaths attributable to AMR among children younger than 5 years is expected to decrease significantly. “In children younger than 5 years, the number of AMR attributable deaths decreased from 204,000 (150–285) to 103,000 (65.0–156) globally,” reflecting a decrease of 49.6%. The largest reductions are observed in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
In light of these alarming projections, the report calls for urgent interventions, particularly in regions like sub-Saharan Africa. It suggests that policy measures aimed at reducing AMR can save lives by prioritizing new vaccines, improving healthcare quality, expanding access to antibiotics, and promoting antibiotic stewardship. Furthermore, developing new antimicrobials, particularly for Gram-negative bacteria, is crucial, given the sharp increase in carbapenem resistance highlighted in the study.
In an optimistic scenario, improved healthcare could prevent up to 92 million deaths—both AMR-related and unrelated—by 2050.
What you should know
A recent report by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, has raised concerns about the presence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in Nigerian newborns, specifically colistin-resistant strains. The report revealed that babies less than one week old were found to have these resistant bacteria, despite neither they nor their mothers being treated with colistin.
This finding, based on an analysis of 4,907 samples, highlighted that 1% of the samples contained genes for colistin resistance, affecting 41 mothers and eight infants.
